How Small Businesses Can Prepare for Uncertain Times Ahead

Facing Tariffs, Inflation, Political Unrest, and Global Conflict

In today’s world, economic uncertainty isn’t a distant concept—it’s here. With rising inflation, looming tariff threats, political unpredictability in the U.S., and ongoing wars overseas, small business owners are right to feel uneasy about what lies ahead. For businesses under $10 million in annual revenue, the margin for error is often razor-thin. Preparing now can mean the difference between resilience and regret. 

Here’s how small businesses—especially service-based companies and restaurants—can build resilience for uncertain times: 

1. Conserve Cash Like It’s Oxygen 

In uncertain times, cash is more than king—it’s survival. A healthy cash reserve allows you to navigate demand shifts, cover payroll, and manage cost spikes in key areas like food, fuel, or contract labor. 

For service-based businesses: 

• Avoid taking on large contracts with thin profit margins just to keep busy. 

• Review retainer agreements to ensure they’re sustainable and profitable. 

• Consider tightening payment terms or collecting deposits upfront for new work. 

For restaurants: 

• Keep a close eye on food waste, over-ordering, and labor scheduling. 

• Stick to your core menu and eliminate underperforming dishes that require costly or unstable ingredients. 

Target: Aim for at least 3–6 months of operating expenses in reserve. 

2. Get Serious About Tax Planning 

Unexpected tax bills can cripple a business. And with potential changes to tax policy after the election, uncertainty is high. 

Pro tip: Open a separate tax savings account and treat it like a monthly bill. Work with a CPA to project your tax burden based on current cash flow—not just year-end profit. 

Restaurants and seasonal service businesses should especially avoid relying on Q4 surges to cover earlier-year tax shortfalls. 

3. Diversify Your Revenue and Supply Chain 

If your business depends on a small set of clients, products, or ingredients, a disruption in one area can create a ripple effect. 

For service-based businesses: 

• Expand offerings to create multiple income streams. For example, a marketing agency could offer DIY templates or consulting hours in addition to retainer services. 

• Consider targeting different industries to avoid being overexposed to one sector (e.g., construction or retail). 

For restaurants: 

• Build supplier redundancy: identify at least one alternate vendor for core items. 

• Think creatively about how to pivot if supply issues hit—e.g., run limited-time menus that feature available, lower-cost ingredients. 

4. Tighten Up Your Budget 

Look at every line item. What tools, subscriptions, and recurring expenses are still providing ROI? 

Service businesses may be overpaying for software licenses or unused platforms. Consolidate where you can and negotiate renewals. Restaurants should monitor utility usage, supplier contracts, and food costs weekly, not monthly. 

5. Build Flexibility Into Pricing 

Clients and customers are feeling the pinch too. Your pricing model needs to be adaptable—but still protect your margins. 

For service providers: 

• Add inflation-based escalators into new contracts or renewals. 

• Shift toward value-based pricing where possible. Selling results helps defend pricing better than selling time. 

For restaurants: 

• Consider smaller, more frequent menu price updates rather than shocking customers with a major jump. 

• Bundle value meals or offer flexible portion sizes to accommodate different budgets. 

6. Revisit Your Insurance and Risk Exposure 

Don’t overlook risk areas that could be made worse by political unrest, supply issues, or staffing problems. 

Service-based businesses should ensure professional liability and cyber coverage are up to date—especially those handling client data. Restaurants need to check their business interruption, spoilage, and equipment coverage. 

Also review internal processes for fraud prevention and security—economic pressure can increase risk from both inside and outside the organization. 

7. Stay Informed but Not Paralyzed 

It’s easy to get overwhelmed by headlines, but your focus should be preparedness, not panic. 

Set a monthly time to review economic updates and their possible business impacts. For example: 

• Tariff updates → could raise the cost of imported goods or packaging 

• Minimum wage or labor law changes → impact scheduling and pricing 

• Election outcomes → could affect tax rates, healthcare, and business deductions 

Use this time to adjust forecasts, re-evaluate pricing, or trim costs as needed. 

8. Invest in Efficiency, Not Expansion 

If growth is off the table for now, focus on running lean. 

Service businesses: 

• Automate billing, reminders, and workflows. 

• Create SOPs to reduce training time and free up your time as the owner. 

Restaurants: 

• Optimize labor schedules based on sales trends. 

• Consider kiosk ordering, QR code menus, or delivery partnerships to reduce staffing demands while maintaining service. 

• Work to improve table turnover and the value of orders for tables not turning over as quickly.  

• Continual training of staff to optimize sales and minimize costs. 

Final Thoughts 

Uncertainty is part of doing business—but planning for it is what separates the stable from the struggling. For small businesses under $10M, the key is staying lean, being proactive, and having cash ready for when things shift—because they will. 

Whether you run a marketing firm, a landscaping company, or a neighborhood bistro, now is the time to stabilize your foundation. You can’t control global politics or the economy—but you can control how ready your business is to respond. 

One of the smartest steps you can take right now is bringing on an outsourced accounting team—especially if you don’t have in-house financial leadership. 

An outsourced bookkeeper, controller, and CFO team can: 

• Keep your books up to date so that you know what your real numbers are and where your challenges lie. 

• Clarify your cash flow and help you build realistic forecasts so you know what you can spend and when to pull back. 

• Set up or improve your budgeting process, identifying areas to cut or shift spending. 

• Monitor margins more closely, helping you adjust pricing or spot waste before it becomes a crisis. 

• Plan for taxes proactively—not just file them. 

• Model scenarios based on inflation, revenue drops, or increased costs to prepare you for best- and worst-case outcomes. 

• Provide financial insight at the leadership level—without the full-time salary of an in-house CFO. 

For many small businesses, an outsourced team offers the flexibility, experience, and strategic support that internal staff simply can't match—especially in turbulent times. 

The more informed your financial decisions, the stronger your business will stand when the winds start to blow.